Data from: Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? U.S. and E.U. Immigration Pressures in the Long Run

Hanson, Gordon; McIntosh, Craig (2016). Data from: Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? U.S. and E.U. Immigration Pressures in the Long Run. UC San Diego Library Digital Collections. https://doi.org/10.6075/J04M92GD

ABSTRACT: How will worldwide changes in population affect pressures for international migration in the future? We contrast the past three decades, during which population pressures contributed to substantial labor flows from neighboring countries into the United States and Europe, with the coming three decades, which will see sharp reductions in labor-supply growth in Latin America but not in Africa or much of the Middle East. Using a gravity-style empirical model, we examine the contribution of changes in relative labor-supply to bilateral migration in the 2000s and then apply this model to project future bilateral flows based on long-run UN forecasts of working-age populations in sending and receiving countries. Because the Americas are entering an era of uniformly low population growth, labor flows across the Rio Grande are projected to slow markedly. Europe, in contrast, will face substantial demographically driven migration pressures from across the Mediterranean for decades to come. While these projected inflows would triple the first-generation immigrant stocks of larger European countries, they would still absorb only a small fraction of the 800-million-person increase in the working-age population of Sub-Saharan Africa that is projected to occur over the coming 40 years.

This component contains the code and data needed to reproduce the results from "Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? U.S. and E.U. Immigration Pressures in the Long Run". For a complete description of the contents of the folder and subfolders, read the README file.

• 2016-01-01 to 2016-05-31

• 2016

• Hanson, Gordon
• McIntosh, Craig

Code and data prepared in Stata 14 and saved to be backwards compatible with Stata 12

• Long-term forecasting
• Migration
• Population growth

• data

• English

Doi: https://doi.org/10.6075/J04M92GD

Primary associated publication

• Hanson, Gordon; McIntosh, Craig (2016). Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? U.S. and E.U. Immigration Pressures in the Long Run. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 30, No. 4, pp. 57-82. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.30.4.57

Other resource

• Database on Immigrants in OECD Countries (DIOC): https://www.oecd.org/els/mig/databaseonimmigrantsinoecdcountriesdioc.htm
• UN World Population Prospects: https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/

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2023-06-01